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Decoding the 2022 Polls: A Deep Dive into RealClearPolitics Data
Introduction:
The 2022 midterm elections captivated the nation, leaving many wondering: how accurate were the polls? RealClearPolitics (RCP), a widely-respected aggregator of political polling data, provides a crucial lens through which to analyze the election forecasts and their ultimate accuracy. This comprehensive guide delves into the 2022 RCP polling data, exploring its strengths, weaknesses, and ultimately, what we can learn from it for future elections. We'll dissect key races, examine methodological considerations, and offer insights into interpreting the complex landscape of political polling. Get ready to unravel the mysteries behind the numbers and understand the vital role RCP played in shaping our understanding of the 2022 midterms.
1. Understanding RealClearPolitics and its Methodology:
RealClearPolitics doesn't conduct its own polls. Instead, it serves as a crucial aggregator, compiling and averaging data from numerous reputable polling organizations. This aggregation offers a broader perspective than relying on any single pollster, mitigating the potential biases of individual surveys. However, it's critical to understand that RCP's methodology relies on the quality of the underlying polls. Inaccurate or biased individual polls can skew the aggregated average. RCP's weighting system, while striving for objectivity, can still be influenced by factors like sample size, methodology, and the pollster's historical accuracy. Understanding these limitations is crucial to interpreting RCP's data effectively. We'll examine specific examples of how variations in individual polls influenced the RCP averages in key 2022 races.
2. Analyzing Key 2022 Races Through the RCP Lens:
The 2022 midterms saw a range of outcomes, from closely contested Senate races to landslide victories in gubernatorial elections. We'll analyze several key races using RCP data as our primary source, illustrating how the aggregated polling data reflected (or failed to reflect) the actual election results. This section will involve specific examples, focusing on:
Senate Races: We'll examine high-profile Senate races, comparing pre-election RCP averages to the final results. This will involve analyzing the margin of error, identifying potential sources of discrepancies, and discussing the implications for future polling methodologies. Specific examples will include races like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, highlighting the variability in accuracy across different states.
Gubernatorial Races: Similar to the Senate analysis, we'll dissect key gubernatorial races, comparing RCP predictions to the actual outcomes. This will include an assessment of factors like candidate performance, campaign spending, and the influence of external events on the final results. Examples could include the races in Florida, Texas, and Michigan, focusing on the varying degrees of accuracy in different electoral contexts.
House Races: While analyzing every House race is impractical, we'll examine aggregate trends in House races as reflected in RCP data. We will explore whether the aggregated polling data accurately predicted the overall shift in House control and the margin of victory for either party.
3. The Limitations of Polling and the 2022 Election:
Polling is an inexact science. Even the most sophisticated methodologies are susceptible to various biases and errors. The 2022 elections highlighted some of these limitations, including:
Sampling Bias: Polls rely on representative samples of the electorate. If the sample isn't truly representative (e.g., oversampling certain demographics), the results can be skewed.
Non-response Bias: Not everyone responds to polls, and those who don't may differ systematically from those who do, leading to biased results.
Shy Trump Voters: The phenomenon of "shy Trump voters" – individuals who support Donald Trump but are hesitant to admit it to pollsters – has been cited as a potential factor in polling inaccuracies. We'll discuss the evidence supporting (or refuting) this claim.
The Impact of Late-Deciding Voters: The percentage of undecided voters can significantly impact the accuracy of pre-election polls. The 2022 election saw a significant number of late-deciding voters, underscoring the challenges in accurately predicting election outcomes.
4. Lessons Learned and Future Implications:
The 2022 elections offered valuable lessons about the strengths and weaknesses of political polling. This section will analyze what we can learn from the RCP data and its limitations, focusing on improvements to polling methodologies and the interpretation of polling data for future elections. We will address potential changes in polling strategies to account for the factors discussed above. This section emphasizes the importance of critical analysis and the need to avoid over-reliance on any single source of polling data.
5. Conclusion:
RealClearPolitics provides a valuable resource for understanding the landscape of political polling, but it’s crucial to interpret its data with a critical eye. By understanding its methodology, limitations, and the inherent complexities of polling, we can better assess the accuracy of election predictions and avoid drawing overly simplistic conclusions. The 2022 election underscores the ongoing need for refinement in polling methodologies and a cautious approach to interpreting pre-election forecasts.
Article Outline:
Title: Decoding the 2022 Polls: A Deep Dive into RealClearPolitics Data
I. Introduction: Hooking the reader and providing an overview.
II. Understanding RealClearPolitics and its Methodology: Explaining RCP's role and limitations.
III. Analyzing Key 2022 Races Through the RCP Lens: Detailed analysis of Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races.
IV. The Limitations of Polling and the 2022 Election: Discussing biases and errors in polling.
V. Lessons Learned and Future Implications: Drawing conclusions and suggesting improvements.
VI. Conclusion: Summarizing key takeaways and emphasizing critical analysis.
(The body of the article above fulfills this outline.)
FAQs:
1. Is RealClearPolitics biased? RCP aims for neutrality but its aggregation method can reflect underlying biases in the polls it uses.
2. How accurate were the 2022 RCP polls? Accuracy varied significantly across races and states, with some predictions being highly accurate and others significantly off.
3. What are the main limitations of using RCP data? RCP's accuracy depends entirely on the accuracy of the underlying polls it aggregates.
4. How does RCP weight different polls? RCP utilizes a weighting system based on various factors, including pollster's track record. The exact formula isn't publicly available.
5. Did "shy Trump voters" affect the 2022 polls? This remains a debated topic with conflicting evidence; it likely played some role in certain races.
6. How can I interpret RCP data effectively? Always consider the margin of error, examine individual polls contributing to the average, and be aware of potential biases.
7. What can we learn from the 2022 polling data for future elections? The need for better sampling methods, addressing non-response bias, and incorporating more sophisticated modeling techniques are crucial lessons.
8. Are there alternative sources of polling data besides RCP? Yes, various organizations, including individual pollsters and news outlets, provide polling data.
9. What role did social media play in influencing 2022 election polls and results? Social media's influence is complex and difficult to quantify directly, but it undoubtedly played a role in shaping public opinion and potentially influencing voter turnout.
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4. A Comparative Analysis of 2022 Midterm Election Polling vs. 2020 Presidential Election Polling: Compares polling accuracy across different election years.
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| 2022 polls real clear politics: Fight John Della Volpe, 2022-01-18 From John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Institute of Politics, Fight is an exploration of Gen Z, the issues that matter most to them, and how they will shape the future. 9/11. The war on terror. Hurricane Katrina. The 2008 financial crisis. The housing crisis. The opioid epidemic. Mass school shootings. Global warming. The Trump presidency. COVID-19. Since they were born, Generation Z (also known as zoomers)—those born from the late 1990s to early 2000s—have been faced with an onslaught of turmoil, destruction and instability unprecedented in modern history. And it shows: they are more stressed, anxious, and depressed than previous generations, a phenomenon John Della Volpe has documented heavily through decades of meeting with groups of young Americans across the country. But Gen Z has not buckled under this tremendous weight. On the contrary, they have organized around issues from gun control to racial and environmental justice to economic equity, becoming more politically engaged than their elders, and showing a unique willingness to disrupt the status quo. In Fight: How Gen Z Is Channeling Their Passion and Fear to Save America, Della Volpe draws on his vast experience to show the largest forces shaping zoomers' lives, the issues they care most about, and how they are—despite older Americans' efforts to label Gen Z as overly sensitive, lazy, and entitled—rising to the unprecedented challenges of their time to take control of their country and our future. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Our Broken Elections John Fund, Hans von Spakovsky, 2021-11-02 Behind the deeply contentious 2020 election stands a real story of a broken election process. Election fraud that alters election outcomes and dilutes legitimate votes occurs all too often, as is the bungling of election bureaucrats. Our election process is full of vulnerabilities that can be — and are — taken advantage of, raising questions about, and damaging public confidence in, the legitimacy of the outcome of elections. This book explores the reality of the fraud and bureaucratic errors and mistakes that should concern all Americans and offers recommendations and solutions to fix those problems. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Unstable Majorities Morris P. Fiorina, 2017-11-01 America is currently fighting its second Civil War. Partisan politics are ripping this country apart. The 2016 election will go down as the most acrimonious presidential campaign of all. Such statements have become standard fare in American politics. In a time marked by gridlock and incivility, it seems the only thing Americans can agree on is this: we're more divided today than we've ever been in our history. In Unstable Majorities Morris P. Fiorina surveys American political history to reveal that, in fact, the American public is not experiencing a period of unprecedented polarization. Bypassing the alarmism that defines contemporary punditry, he cites research and historical context that illuminate the forces that shape voting patterns, political parties, and voter behavior. By placing contemporary events in their proper context, he corrects widespread misconceptions and gives reasons to be optimistic about the future of American electoral politics. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Communities in Action National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Health and Medicine Division, Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice, Committee on Community-Based Solutions to Promote Health Equity in the United States, 2017-04-27 In the United States, some populations suffer from far greater disparities in health than others. Those disparities are caused not only by fundamental differences in health status across segments of the population, but also because of inequities in factors that impact health status, so-called determinants of health. Only part of an individual's health status depends on his or her behavior and choice; community-wide problems like poverty, unemployment, poor education, inadequate housing, poor public transportation, interpersonal violence, and decaying neighborhoods also contribute to health inequities, as well as the historic and ongoing interplay of structures, policies, and norms that shape lives. When these factors are not optimal in a community, it does not mean they are intractable: such inequities can be mitigated by social policies that can shape health in powerful ways. Communities in Action: Pathways to Health Equity seeks to delineate the causes of and the solutions to health inequities in the United States. This report focuses on what communities can do to promote health equity, what actions are needed by the many and varied stakeholders that are part of communities or support them, as well as the root causes and structural barriers that need to be overcome. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Decision Points (Enhanced Edition) George W. Bush, 2010-11-09 With more than 200 photographs, videos, letters, and speeches, this Deluxe eBook edition of Decision Points brings to life the critical decisions of George W. Bush’s presidency. George W. Bush served as president of the United States during eight of the most consequential years in American history. The decisions that reached his desk impacted people around the world and defined the times in which we live. Decision Points takes readers inside the Texas governor’s mansion on the night of the 2000 election, aboard Air Force One during the harrowing hours after the attacks of September 11, 2001, into the Situation Room moments before the start of the war in Iraq, and behind the scenes at the White House for many other historic presidential decisions on the financial crisis, Hurricane Katrina, Afghanistan, and Iran. In addition, it offers intimate new details on his quitting drinking, his discovery of faith, and his relationship with his family. The Deluxe eBook edition also includes: • Videos from the defining moments of the presidency, including Bush’s inspiring Ground Zero speech to the 9/11 rescue workers, intimate family home movies, and a special introduction to the edition from the president himself • Full texts of his most important speeches, including his addresses to the nation about 9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq, and his second Inaugural • Handwritten letters from the president’s personal correspondence • And more than 50 new photos not contained in the print version of Decision Points A groundbreaking first in bringing multimedia to presidential memoir, the Deluxe eBook edition of Decision Points will captivate supporters, surprise critics, and change perspectives on eight remarkable years in American history—and on the man at the center of events. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Divided We Stand Andrew E. Busch, John J. Pitney, 2021-02-24 Through pandemic, protests, and polarization, Americans went to the polls in 2020, one of the most contentious elections in American history. Continuing an R&L tradition now entering its fourth decade, Divided We Stand book provides the most comprehensive and authoritative account of the national election, as well as congressional and state elections. From the nominating process to the insurrection designed to stop the ratification of the electoral college vote, Andrew E. Busch and John J. Pitney Jr. revisit the campaigns and results through the short lens of politics today and the long lens of American political history. With its keen insights into the issues and events that drove the 2020 elections, Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics will be an invaluable resource for students and all political observers seeking to understand a historic election that will continue to resonate throughout American politics for many years to come. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Polls Weren't Wrong Carl Allen, 2024-09-24 Interpreting poll data as a prediction of election outcomes is a practice as old as the field, rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of what poll data means. By first understanding how polls work at a fundamental level, this book gives readers the ability to discern flaws in the current methods. Then, through specific political examples from both the United States and the United Kingdom, it is shown how polls famously derided as wrong were, in fact, accurate. While polls are not always accurate, the reasons we can and can’t (rightly) call them wrong are explained in this book. This book will equip readers with the tools to navigate the mismatch of expectations. It is not intended to replace more technical applications of statistics but is accessible to anyone interested in learning more about how poll data should be understood, compared to how it’s currently misunderstood. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Joe Biden’s Policies on Abortion and Immigration Jo Renee Formicola, 2023-10-30 The first part of Joe Biden’s Policies on Abortion and Immigration examines the policy quandaries that arise from the fact that President Biden considers himself a liberal, a Catholic, and a Democrat. That self-identification has challenged aspects of his leadership and governance that have resulted in growing national controversies surrounding his abortion and immigration policies. Thus, this book articulates Catholic moral and social teachings on these issues, the president’s perceived religious beliefs that often clash with his personal views and values, as well as his opposing political responses to them. It also explains his partisan actions to abortion and immigration that include numerous executive orders, appointments of individuals who are unable to help him develop solutions to such critical matters, and his criticisms of the Congress, the Supreme Court, and previous administration officials. The second part of this book, then, gives examples of how policy difficulties have been overcome by various government leaders who have also dealt with critical decision-making and agenda options. It provides historical models, management methods, communication strategies, and religious principles that can be utilized to create pragmatic solutions to the problems of immigration and abortion. They can also be implemented by the president while also helping him to instill a sense of unity and justice on these policy issues in the United States. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Gun Control Myths John Lott, 2020-07-03 Lott blows away one false myth about gun ownership after another. As Andrew Pollack's Foreward notes; Learn the actual facts that debunk them. From myths about mass public shootings to suicides to gun ownership rates and crime to gun free zones, Lott addresses the claims you frequently hear in the media and explains what is wrong with those claims. John Lott has been giving us the facts about guns for decades. Finally clear to all that one party in America has an anti-Second Amendment platform and wants to disarm you. Now you need to arm yourself with the Truth. Buy and read Gun Control Myths today. Before it's too late. Sebastian Gorka Ph.D.,host of AMERICAN First, former Strategist to President Trump John Lott shows that the media and many politicians are biased against guns. For example, many stories are written in the media about shooters, but very few about defensive uses of guns. Similarly, he shows that some gun control policies are actually counterproductive. Shooters seek out gun-free zones. If we banned assault weapons, shooters might shift to larger hunting guns. The book is copiously footnoted. It is full of statistical and graphical analysis, so that his points are easily grasped and persuasive. Anyone who advocates gun control and does not seriously consider John's work is negligent. Any journalist who does not at least consider John's work is committing journalistic malpractice. Paul H. Rubin, Dobbs Professor of Economics Emeritus, Emory University We have John Lott to thank for once again providing factual and empirical based research to counter the anti gun movement's well funded and organized campaign based on nothing more than slogans, myths and propaganda designed to demonize supporters of our cherished Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms. David Clarke Sheriff(RET) Milwaukee County John Lott is the go-to expert when it comes to protecting the second amendment. Without the second amendment Americans could be stripped of our right to arm ourselves against aggressors. Arm yourselves with knowledge by reading Gun Control Myths and join me in protecting the Second Amendment. Eric Bolling Host AMERICA This Week Sinclair Broadcast |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Great Alignment Alan I. Abramowitz, 2018-06-19 Alan I. Abramowitz has emerged as a leading spokesman for the view that our current political divide is not confined to a small group of elites and activists but a key feature of the American social and cultural landscape. The polarization of the political and media elites, he argues, arose and persists because it accurately reflects the state of American society. Here, he goes further: the polarization is unique in modern U.S. history. Today’s party divide reflects an unprecedented alignment of many different divides: racial and ethnic, religious, ideological, and geographic. Abramowitz shows how the partisan alignment arose out of the breakup of the old New Deal coalition; introduces the most important difference between our current era and past eras, the rise of “negative partisanship”; explains how this phenomenon paved the way for the Trump presidency; and examines why our polarization could even grow deeper. This statistically based analysis shows that racial anxiety is by far a better predictor of support for Donald Trump than any other factor, including economic discontent. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Messengers of the Right Nicole Hemmer, 2016-09-22 Messengers of the Right tells the story of the media activists who built the American conservative movement and transformed it into one of the most significant and successful movements of the twentieth century—and in the process remade the Republican Party and the American media landscape. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Typing Politics Richard Davis, 2009-05-26 The power of political blogs in American politics is now evident to anyone who follows it. In Typing Politics, Richard Davis provides a comprehensive yet concise assessment of the growing role played by political blogs and their relationship with the mainstream media. Through a detailed content analysis of the most popular political blogs--Daily Kos, Instapundit, Michelle Malkin, and Wonkette--he shows the degree to which blogs influence the traditional news media. Specifically, he compares the content of these blogs to four leading newspapers noted for their political coverage: The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Times. He explains how political journalists at these papers use blogs to inform their reportage and analyzes general attitudes about the role of blogs in journalism. Drawing on a national survey of political blog readers, Davis concludes with a novel assessment of the blog audience. Compact, accessible, and well-researched, Typing Politics will be an invaluable contribution to the literature on a phenomenon that has reshaped the landscape of political communication. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Roads to Congress 2022 Walter Clark Wilson, Sean D. Foreman, Marcia L. Godwin, 2024-01-31 This book analyzes both local and national House and Senate campaigns in the 2022 midterm elections to reveal how distinctive campaign dynamics have a collective national impact. Despite serious efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential race that went mostly unopposed by Republicans, the GOP is poised to gain seats, and perhaps control of Congress less than two years later. Their efforts to accomplish this feat may be explained by the biannual pattern of surging and declining partisan electorates that political scientists have long used to explain election outcomes. But in an era where global pandemic lingers, inflation hit its highest rate in two generations, Wall Street faces its first bear market in more than a decade, war among developed nations has returned to the international stage, and efforts by a former President to maintain his grip on a party that lost the 2020 popular vote by 9 million proved largely successful, the story is clearly more complicated. The 2022 midterms thus arrive on the heels of unprecedented developments for democracy in America. The Roads to Congress 2022 provides an essential guide to understanding these developments, with thematic chapters authored by more than thirty experts in campaigns and elections that explore the evolving state of party politics, electoral governance, redistricting, participation and representation, and profile the key races of the season. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them G. Elliott Morris, 2022-07-12 An insightful exploration of political polling and a bold defense of its crucial role in a modern democracy. Public opinion polling is the ultimate democratic process; it gives every person an equal voice in letting elected leaders know what they need and want. But in the eyes of the public, polls today are tarnished. Recent election forecasts have routinely missed the mark and media coverage of polls has focused solely on their ability to predict winners and losers. Polls deserve better. In Strength in Numbers, data journalist G. Elliott Morris argues that the larger purpose of political polls is to improve democracy, not just predict elections. Whether used by interest groups, the press, or politicians, polling serves as a pipeline from the governed to the government, giving citizens influence they would otherwise lack. No one who believes in democracy can afford to give up on polls; they should commit, instead, to understanding them better. In a vibrant history of polling, Morris takes readers from the first semblance of data-gathering in the ancient world through to the development of modern-day scientific polling. He explains how the internet and “big data” have solved many challenges in polling—and created others. He covers the rise of polling aggregation and methods of election forecasting, reveals how data can be distorted and misrepresented, and demystifies the real uncertainty of polling. Candidly acknowledging where polls have gone wrong in the past, Morris charts a path for the industry’s future where it can truly work for the people. Persuasively argued and deeply researched, Strength in Numbers is an essential guide to understanding and embracing one of the most important and overlooked democratic institutions in the United States. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Global Trends 2040 National Intelligence Council, 2021-03 The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come. -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Politics Online Richard Davis, 2013-05-13 Despite the growth of various forms of online discussion, their impact on American political life is only beginning to be examined systematically. In Politics Online Richard Davis provides a thorough analysis detailing the political attitudes, behavior, and demographic nature of the electronic discussion community contrasting that community with the general public. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Politics Industry Katherine M. Gehl, Michael E. Porter, 2020-06-23 Leading political innovation activist Katherine Gehl and world-renowned business strategist Michael Porter bring fresh perspective, deep scholarship, and a real and actionable solution, Final Five Voting, to the grand challenge of our broken political and democratic system. Final Five Voting has already been adopted in Alaska and is being advanced in states across the country. The truth is, the American political system is working exactly how it is designed to work, and it isn't designed or optimized today to work for us—for ordinary citizens. Most people believe that our political system is a public institution with high-minded principles and impartial rules derived from the Constitution. In reality, it has become a private industry dominated by a textbook duopoly—the Democrats and the Republicans—and plagued and perverted by unhealthy competition between the players. Tragically, it has therefore become incapable of delivering solutions to America's key economic and social challenges. In fact, there's virtually no connection between our political leaders solving problems and getting reelected. In The Politics Industry, business leader and path-breaking political innovator Katherine Gehl and world-renowned business strategist Michael Porter take a radical new approach. They ingeniously apply the tools of business analysis—and Porter's distinctive Five Forces framework—to show how the political system functions just as every other competitive industry does, and how the duopoly has led to the devastating outcomes we see today. Using this competition lens, Gehl and Porter identify the most powerful lever for change—a strategy comprised of a clear set of choices in two key areas: how our elections work and how we make our laws. Their bracing assessment and practical recommendations cut through the endless debate about various proposed fixes, such as term limits and campaign finance reform. The result: true political innovation. The Politics Industry is an original and completely nonpartisan guide that will open your eyes to the true dynamics and profound challenges of the American political system and provide real solutions for reshaping the system for the benefit of all. THE INSTITUTE FOR POLITICAL INNOVATION The authors will donate all royalties from the sale of this book to the Institute for Political Innovation. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: AP U.S. Government and Politics Premium, 2022-2023: 6 Practice Tests + Comprehensive Review + Online Practice Curt Lader, 2022-02 At head of title: Barron's: the trusted name in test prep. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Polling Matters Frank Newport, 2004-07-30 From The Gallup Organization-the most respected source on the subject-comes a fascinating look at the importance of measuring public opinion in modern society. For years, public-opinion polls have been a valuable tool for gauging the positions of American citizens on a wide variety of topics. Polling applies scientific principles to understanding and anticipating the insights, emotions, and attitudes of society. Now in POLLING MATTERS: Why Leaders Must Listen to the Wisdom of the People, The Gallup Organization reveals: What polls really are and how they are conducted Why the information polls provide is so vitally important to modern society today How this valuable information can be used more effectively and more... |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Lost in a Gallup W. Joseph Campbell, 2020-08-25 A sweeping look at the messy and contentious past of US presidential pre-election polls and why they aren’t as reliable as we think. Polls in U.S. presidential elections can and do get it wrong—as surprising outcomes in 2020, in 2016, in 2012, in 2004, in 2000 all remind us. Lost in a Gallup captures in lively and unprecedented fashion the stories of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in presidential elections since 1936. Polling’s checkered record in elections has rarely been considered in detail and, until now, has never been addressed collectively. Polling embarrassments are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides occurred; they have indicated the wrong winner in closer elections; state polls have confounded expected national outcomes. Exit polling has thrown Election Day into confusion. The work of venerable pollsters has been singularly and memorably in error. It is a rare presidential election not to be marred by polling controversies. Lost in a Gallup casts a critical eye on major figures in election polling such as George Gallup, a prickly founding father of public opinion research. The book also considers the polling innovations of Warren Mitofsky, whose admonition rings true across generations: “There’s a lot of room for humility in polling. Every time you get cocky, you lose.” Lost in a Gallup examines how polling failure often equates to journalistic failure. Historically, poll-bashing was quite pronounced among prominent journalists, including well-known newspaper columnists such as Mike Royko in Chicago and Jimmy Breslin in New York. They and other journalists challenged the presumption that polls could accurately measure or interpret what the public was thinking. Even so, polls drive news media narratives about presidential elections, shaping conventional wisdom about how competitive those races are. As Lost in a Gallup makes clear, polls are not always in error. But when they fail, they can fail in surprising ways. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Rise of English Rosemary C. Salomone, 2022 A sweeping account of the global rise of English and the high-stakes politics of languageSpoken by a quarter of the world's population, English is today's lingua franca- - its common tongue. The language of business, popular media, and international politics, English has become commodified for its economic value and increasingly detached from any particular nation. This meteoric riseof English has many obvious benefits to communication. Tourists can travel abroad with greater ease. Political leaders can directly engage their counterparts. Researchers can collaborate with foreign colleagues. Business interests can flourish in the global economy.But the rise of English has very real downsides as well. In Europe, imperatives of political integration and job mobility compete with pride in national language and heritage. In the United States and England, English isolates us from the cultural and economic benefits of speaking other languages.And in countries like India, South Africa, Morocco, and Rwanda, it has stratified society along lines of English proficiency.In The Rise of English, Rosemary Salomone offers a commanding view of the unprecedented spread of English and the far-reaching effects it has on global and local politics, economics, media, education, and business. From the inner workings of the European Union to linguistic battles over influence inAfrica, Salomone draws on a wealth of research to tell the complex story of English - and, ultimately, to argue for English not as a force for domination but as a core component of multilingualism and the transcendence of linguistic and cultural borders. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Next Civil War Stephen Marche, 2023-01-03 “Should be required reading for anyone interested in preserving our 246-year experiment in self-government.” —The New York Times Book Review * “Well researched and eloquently presented.” —The Atlantic * “Delivers Cormac McCarthy-worthy drama; while the nonfictional asides imbue that drama with the authority of documentary.” —The New York Times Book Review A celebrated journalist takes a fiercely divided America and imagines five chilling scenarios that lead to its collapse, based on in-depth interviews with experts of all kinds. The United States is coming to an end. The only question is how. On a small two-lane bridge in a rural county that loathes the federal government, the US Army uses lethal force to end a standoff with hard-right anti-government patriots. Inside an ordinary diner, a disaffected young man with a handgun takes aim at the American president stepping in for an impromptu photo-op, and a bullet splits the hyper-partisan country into violently opposed mourners and revelers. In New York City, a Category 2 hurricane plunges entire neighborhoods underwater and creates millions of refugees overnight—a blow that comes on the heels of a financial crash and years of catastrophic droughts—and tips America over the edge into ruin. These nightmarish scenarios are just three of the five possibilities most likely to spark devastating chaos in the United States that are brought to life in The Next Civil War, a chilling and deeply researched work of speculative nonfiction. Drawing upon sophisticated predictive models and nearly two hundred interviews with experts—civil war scholars, military leaders, law enforcement officials, secret service agents, agricultural specialists, environmentalists, war historians, and political scientists—journalist Stephen Marche predicts the terrifying future collapse that so many of us do not want to see unfolding in front of our eyes. Marche has spoken with soldiers and counterinsurgency experts about what it would take to control the population of the United States, and the battle plans for the next civil war have already been drawn up. Not by novelists, but by colonels. No matter your political leaning, most of us can sense that America is barreling toward catastrophe—of one kind or another. Relevant and revelatory, The Next Civil War plainly breaks down the looming threats to America and is a must-read for anyone concerned about the future of its people, its land, and its government. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Forgotten Ben Bradlee Jr., 2018-10-02 The people of Luzerne County, Pennsylvania voted Democratic for decades, until Donald Trump flipped it in 2016. What happened? Named one of the juiciest political books to come in 2018 by Entertainment Weekly. In The Forgotten, Ben Bradlee Jr. reports on how voters in Luzerne County, a pivotal county in a crucial swing state, came to feel like strangers in their own land - marginalized by flat or falling wages, rapid demographic change, and a liberal culture that mocks their faith and patriotism. Fundamentally rural and struggling with changing demographics and limited opportunity, Luzerne County can be seen as a microcosm of the nation. In The Forgotten, Trump voters speak for themselves, explaining how they felt others were 'cutting in line' and that the federal government was taking too much money from the employed and giving it to the idle. The loss of breadwinner status, and more importantly, the loss of dignity, primed them for a candidate like Donald Trump. The political facts of a divided America are stark, but the stories of the men, women and families in The Forgotten offer a kaleidoscopic and fascinating portrait of the complex on-the-ground political reality of America today. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Design in Nature Adrian Bejan, J. Peder Zane, 2013-01-08 In this groundbreaking book, Adrian Bejan takes the recurring patterns in nature—trees, tributaries, air passages, neural networks, and lightning bolts—and reveals how a single principle of physics, the constructal law, accounts for the evolution of these and many other designs in our world. Everything—from biological life to inanimate systems—generates shape and structure and evolves in a sequence of ever-improving designs in order to facilitate flow. River basins, cardiovascular systems, and bolts of lightning are very efficient flow systems to move a current—of water, blood, or electricity. Likewise, the more complex architecture of animals evolve to cover greater distance per unit of useful energy, or increase their flow across the land. Such designs also appear in human organizations, like the hierarchical “flowcharts” or reporting structures in corporations and political bodies. All are governed by the same principle, known as the constructal law, and configure and reconfigure themselves over time to flow more efficiently. Written in an easy style that achieves clarity without sacrificing complexity, Design in Nature is a paradigm-shifting book that will fundamentally transform our understanding of the world around us. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: A More Perfect Constitution Larry J. Sabato, 2010-07-23 The reader can't help but hold out hope that maybe someday, some of these sweeping changes could actually bring the nation's government out of its intellectual quagmire...his lively, conversational tone and compelling examples make the reader a more than willing student for this updated civics lesson. --The Hill The political book of the year, from the acclaimed founder and director of the Center for politics at the University of Virginia. A More Perfect Constitution presents creative and dynamic proposals from one of the most visionary and fertile political minds of our time to reinvigorate our Constitution and American governance at a time when such change is urgently needed, given the growing dysfunction and unfairness of our political system . Combining idealism and pragmatism, and with full respect for the original document, Larry Sabato's thought-provoking ideas range from the length of the president's term in office and the number and terms of Supreme Court justices to the vagaries of the antiquated Electoral College, and a compelling call for universal national service-all laced through with the history behind each proposal and the potential impact on the lives of ordinary people. Aware that such changes won't happen easily, but that the original Framers fully expected the Constitution to be regularly revised, Sabato urges us to engage in the debate and discussion his ideas will surely engender. During an election year, no book is more relevant or significant than this. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: What Happened Hillary Rodham Clinton, 2017-09-12 “An engaging, beautifully synthesized page-turner” (Slate). The #1 New York Times bestseller and Time #1 Nonfiction Book of the Year: Hillary Rodham Clinton’s most personal memoir yet, about the 2016 presidential election. In this “candid and blackly funny” (The New York Times) memoir, Hillary Rodham Clinton reveals what she was thinking and feeling during one of the most controversial and unpredictable presidential elections in history. She takes us inside the intense personal experience of becoming the first woman nominated for president by a major party in an election marked by rage, sexism, exhilarating highs and infuriating lows, stranger-than-fiction twists, Russian interference, and an opponent who broke all the rules. “At her most emotionally raw” (People), Hillary describes what it was like to run against Donald Trump, the mistakes she made, how she has coped with a shocking and devastating loss, and how she found the strength to pick herself back up afterward. She tells readers what it took to get back on her feet—the rituals, relationships, and reading that got her through, and what the experience has taught her about life. In this “feminist manifesto” (The New York Times), she speaks to the challenges of being a strong woman in the public eye, the criticism over her voice, age, and appearance, and the double standard confronting women in politics. Offering a “bracing... guide to our political arena” (The Washington Post), What Happened lays out how the 2016 election was marked by an unprecedented assault on our democracy by a foreign adversary. By analyzing the evidence and connecting the dots, Hillary shows just how dangerous the forces are that shaped the outcome, and why Americans need to understand them to protect our values and our democracy in the future. The election of 2016 was unprecedented and historic. What Happened is the story of that campaign, now with a new epilogue showing how Hillary grappled with many of her worst fears coming true in the Trump Era, while finding new hope in a surge of civic activism, women running for office, and young people marching in the streets. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: How Civil Wars Start Barbara F. Walter, 2023-04-25 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A leading political scientist examines the dramatic rise in violent extremism around the globe and sounds the alarm on the increasing likelihood of a second civil war in the United States “Required reading for anyone invested in preserving our 246-year experiment in self-government.”—The New York Times Book Review (Editors’ Choice) WINNER OF THE GLOBAL POLICY INSTITUTE AWARD • THE SUNDAY TIMES BOOK OF THE YEAR • ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR: Financial Times, The Times (UK), Esquire, Prospect (UK) Political violence rips apart several towns in southwest Texas. A far-right militia plots to kidnap the governor of Michigan and try her for treason. An armed mob of Trump supporters and conspiracy theorists storms the U.S. Capitol. Are these isolated incidents? Or is this the start of something bigger? Barbara F. Walter has spent her career studying civil conflict in places like Iraq, Ukraine, and Sri Lanka, but now she has become increasingly worried about her own country. Perhaps surprisingly, both autocracies and healthy democracies are largely immune from civil war; it’s the countries in the middle ground that are most vulnerable. And this is where more and more countries, including the United States, are finding themselves today. Over the last two decades, the number of active civil wars around the world has almost doubled. Walter reveals the warning signs—where wars tend to start, who initiates them, what triggers them—and why some countries tip over into conflict while others remain stable. Drawing on the latest international research and lessons from over twenty countries, Walter identifies the crucial risk factors, from democratic backsliding to factionalization and the politics of resentment. A civil war today won’t look like America in the 1860s, Russia in the 1920s, or Spain in the 1930s. It will begin with sporadic acts of violence and terror, accelerated by social media. It will sneak up on us and leave us wondering how we could have been so blind. In this urgent and insightful book, Walter redefines civil war for a new age, providing the framework we need to confront the danger we now face—and the knowledge to stop it before it’s too late. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Obama's Legacy The Washington Post, 2016-12-20 In this timely retrospective, leading voices from The Washington Post come together to discuss Barack Obama’s historic presidency. When President Obama was elected, he was a figure of hope for many Americans. Throughout his presidency, he has become far more than a symbol of change; he has enacted countless programs and policies that have made an impact on the country. As his term comes to an end, we look back on what has defined Obama as an American leader. Providing insight into everything from his politics to his family, this collection of articles examines the highlights of the Obama administration. The award-winning journalists at The Washington Post have brought together stories from the last eight years to commemorate the indelible mark our most recent president has made on the United States. Featuring over a hundred historic photos and articles from eight Pulitzer Prize winners, Obama’s Legacy is the perfect way to close out the first family’s years in the White House. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Progressive Capitalism Ro Khanna, 2023-02-07 Congressman Ro Khanna offers a revolutionary, “progressive” (James J. Heckman, Nobel Prize winner and professor of economics at the University of Chicago) roadmap to facing America’s digital divide, offering greater economic prosperity to all. In Khanna’s vision, “just as people can move to technology, technology can move to people” (from the foreword by Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate in Economics) where “Khanna envisions redistributing opportunities from coastal cities to rural middle-America…An exciting vision, brilliantly rendered.” (Arlie Russell Hochschild, author of Strangers in Their Own Land). Unequal access to technology and the revenue it creates is one of the most pressing issues in the United States. An economic gulf exists between those who have struck gold in the tech industry and those left behind by the digital revolution; a geographic divide between those in the coastal tech industry and those in the heartland whose jobs have been automated; and existing inequalities in the technological access—students without computers, rural workers with spotty WiFi, and many workers without the luxury to work remotely. Congressman Ro Khanna’s Progressive Capitalism tackles these challenges head-on and imagines how the digital economy can create opportunities for people across the country without uprooting them. Anchored by an approach Khanna calls “progressive capitalism,” he shows how democratizing access to tech can strengthen every sector of economy and culture. By expanding technological jobs nationwide through public and private partnerships, we can close the wealth gap in America and begin to repair the fractured, distrusting relationships that have plagued our country for fall too long. Inspired by his own story born into an immigrant family, Khanna understands how economic opportunity can change the course of a person’s life. Moving deftly between storytelling, policy, and some of the country’s greatest thinkers in political philosophy and economics, Khanna presents a vision we can’t afford to ignore. Progressive Capitalism is a “practical and aspirational” (Kimberlé Crenshaw, professor of law at UCLA and Columbia University) roadmap to how we can seek dignity for every American in an era in which technology shapes every aspect of our lives. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Lost Majority Sean Trende, 2012-01-03 In today's fraught political climate, one thing is indisputable: the dream of the emerging Democratic majority is dead. How did the Democrats, who seemed unstoppable only two short years ago, lose their momentum so quickly, and what does it mean for the future of our two-party system? Here, RealClearPolitics senior analyst Sean Trende explores the underlying weaknesses of the Democratic promise of recent years, and shows how unlikely a new era of liberal values always was as demonstrated by the current backlash against unions and other Democratic pillars. Persuasively arguing that both Republicans and Democrats are failing to connect with the real values of the American people - and that long-held theories of cyclical political realignments are baseless - Trende shows how elusive a true and lasting majority is in today's climate, how Democrats can make up for the ground they've lost, and how Republicans can regain power and credibility. Trende's surprising insights include: The South didn't shift toward the Republicans because of racism, but because of economics. Barack Obama's 2008 win wasn't grounded in a new, transformative coalition, but in a narrower version of Bill Clinton's coalition. The Latino vote is not a given for the Democrats; as they move up the economic ladder, they will start voting Republican. Even before the recent fights about the public sector, Democratic strongholds like unions were no longer relevant political entities. With important critiques of the possible Republican presidential nominations in 2012, this is a timely, inspiring look at the next era of American politics. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Oxford Handbook of Deliberative Democracy André Bächtiger, John S. Dryzek, Jane Mansbridge, Mark E. Warren, 2018-08-23 Deliberative democracy has been one of the main games in contemporary political theory for two decades, growing enormously in size and importance in political science and many other disciplines. The Oxford Handbook of Deliberative Democracy takes stock of deliberative democracy as a research field, in philosophy, in various research programmes in the social sciences and law, and in political practice around the globe. It provides a concise history of deliberative ideals in political thought and discusses their philosophical origins. The Handbook locates deliberation in political systems with different spaces, publics, and venues, including parliaments, courts, governance networks, protests, mini-publics, old and new media, and everyday talk. It engages with practical applications, mapping deliberation as a reform movement and as a device for conflict resolution, documenting the practice and study of deliberative democracy around the world and in global governance. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Confidence Man Maggie Haberman, 2022-10-05 From the Pulitzer Prize–winning New York Times reporter who has defined Donald J. Trump’s presidency like no other journalist: a magnificent and disturbing reckoning that chronicles his life and its impact, from his rise in New York City to his tortured postpresidency. All of Trump’s behavior as president had echoes in what came before. In this revelatory and news-making book, Haberman brings together the events of his life into a single mesmerizing work. It is the definitive account of one of the most norms-shattering and consequential eras in American political history. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Atlantic Realists Matthew Specter, 2022-02-08 In The Atlantic Realists, intellectual historian Matthew Specter offers a boldly revisionist interpretation of realism, a prevalent stance in post-WWII US foreign policy and public discourse and the dominant international relations theory during the Cold War. Challenging the common view of realism as a set of universally binding truths about international affairs, Specter argues that its major features emerged from a century-long dialogue between American and German intellectuals beginning in the late nineteenth century. Specter uncovers an Atlantic realist tradition of reflection on the prerogatives of empire and the nature of power politics conditioned by fin de siècle imperial competition, two world wars, the Holocaust, and the Cold War. Focusing on key figures in the evolution of realist thought, including Carl Schmitt, Hans Morgenthau, and Wilhelm Grewe, this book traces the development of the realist worldview over a century, dismantling myths about the national interest, Realpolitik, and the art of statesmanship. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Modern Political Campaigns Michael D. Cohen, 2021-06-15 Modern Political Campaigns brings together academic, practical, and interviews to help understand how professionalism, technology, and speed have revolutionized elections, creating more voter-centric races for public office. Dr. Michael D. Cohen, a 20+ year veteran of working on, teaching, and writing about political campaigns take readers through how campaigns are organized, state-of-the-art tools of the trade, and how some of the most interesting people in politics got their big breaks. The book takes readers through clear-eyed chapters on parties and elections, campaign planning and management, fundraising, independent groups, vulnerability and opposition research, data and analytics, focus groups and polling, earned, paid and social media, and field operations. Finally, the book revisits the Permanent Campaign in terms of modern approaches to winning elections raising questions about today’s uniform preference for turnout over persuasion and what that means for our American democracy. Modern Political Campaigns will appeal to students and political activists interested in working in political campaigns. It is also a great read for anyone who wants to better understand the nuts and bolts of campaigns in practical terms from professionals, and the opportunities they provide all of us to be more engaged citizens and hold our leaders more accountable each Election Day. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Plot Against America Philip Roth, 2004-10-05 Philip Roth's bestselling alternate history—the chilling story of what happens to one family when America elects a charismatic, isolationist president—is soon to be an HBO limited series. In an extraordinary feat of narrative invention, Philip Roth imagines an alternate history where Franklin D. Roosevelt loses the 1940 presidential election to heroic aviator and rabid isolationist Charles A. Lindbergh. Shortly thereafter, Lindbergh negotiates a cordial “understanding” with Adolf Hitler, while the new government embarks on a program of folksy anti-Semitism. For one boy growing up in Newark, Lindbergh’s election is the first in a series of ruptures that threaten to destroy his small, safe corner of America–and with it, his mother, his father, and his older brother. A terrific political novel . . . Sinister, vivid, dreamlike . . . creepily plausible. . . You turn the pages, astonished and frightened.” — The New York Times Book Review |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Biden Vs. Trump Wake Forest University, 2021-07-14 |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Nightmare Scenario Yasmeen Abutaleb, Damian Paletta, 2021-06-29 Instant #1 New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller From the Washington Post journalists Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta—the definitive account of the Trump administration’s tragic mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the chaos, incompetence, and craven politicization that has led to more than a half million American deaths and counting. Since the day Donald Trump was elected, his critics warned that an unexpected crisis would test the former reality-television host—and they predicted that the president would prove unable to meet the moment. In 2020, that crisis came to pass, with the outcomes more devastating and consequential than anyone dared to imagine. Nightmare Scenario is the complete story of Donald Trump’s handling—and mishandling—of the COVID-19 catastrophe, during the period of January 2020 up to Election Day that year. Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta take us deep inside the White House, from the Situation Room to the Oval Office, to show how the members of the administration launched an all-out war against the health agencies, doctors, and scientific communities, all in their futile attempts to wish away the worst global pandemic in a century. From the initial discovery of this new coronavirus, President Trump refused to take responsibility, disputed the recommendations of his own pandemic task force, claimed the virus would “just disappear,” mocked advocates for safe-health practices, and encouraged his base and the entire GOP to ignore or rescind public health safety measures. Abutaleb and Paletta reveal the numerous times officials tried to dissuade Trump from following his worst impulses as he defied recommendations from the experts and even members of his own administration. And they show how the petty backstabbing and rivalries among cabinet members, staff, and aides created a toxic environment of blame, sycophancy, and political pressure that did profound damage to the public health institutions that Americans needed the most during this time. Even after an outbreak in the fall that swept through the White House and infected Trump himself, he remained defiant in his approach to the virus, very likely costing him his own reelection. Based on exhaustive reporting and hundreds of hours of interviews from inside the disaster zone at all levels of authority, Nightmare Scenario is a riveting account of how the United States government failed its people as never before, a tragedy whose devastating aftershocks will linger and be felt by generations to come. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Rigged Mollie Hemingway, 2021-10-12 FROM THE AUTHOR OF THE #1 NATIONAL BESTSELLER JUSTICE ON TRIAL Stunned by the turbulence of the 2020 election, millions of Americans are asking the forbidden question: what really happened? It was a devastating triple punch. Capping their four-year campaign to destroy the Trump presidency, the media portrayed a Democratic victory as necessary and inevitable. Big Tech, wielding unprecedented powers, vaporized dissent and erased damning reports about the Biden family's corruption. And Democratic operatives, exploiting a public health crisis, shamelessly manipulated the voting process itself. Silenced and subjected, the American people lost their faith in the system. RIGGED is the definitive account of the 2020 election. Based on Mollie Hemingway's exclusive interviews with campaign officials, reporters, Supreme Court justices, and President Trump himself, it exposes the fraud and cynicism behind the Democrats' historic power-grab. Rewriting history is a specialty of the radical left, now in control of America's political and cultural heights. But they will have to contend with the determination, insight, and eloquence of Mollie Hemingway. RIGGED is a reminder for weary patriots that truth is still the most powerful weapon. The stakes for our democracy have never been higher. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump Bandy X. Lee, 2019-03-19 As this bestseller predicted, Trump has only grown more erratic and dangerous as the pressures on him mount. This new edition includes new essays bringing the book up to date—because this is still not normal. Originally released in fall 2017, The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump was a runaway bestseller. Alarmed Americans and international onlookers wanted to know: What is wrong with him? That question still plagues us. The Trump administration has proven as chaotic and destructive as its opponents feared, and the man at the center of it all remains a cipher. Constrained by the APA’s “Goldwater rule,” which inhibits mental health professionals from diagnosing public figures they have not personally examined, many of those qualified to weigh in on the issue have shied away from discussing it at all. The public has thus been left to wonder whether he is mad, bad, or both. The prestigious mental health experts who have contributed to the revised and updated version of The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump argue that their moral and civic duty to warn supersedes professional neutrality. Whatever affects him, affects the nation: From the trauma people have experienced under the Trump administration to the cult-like characteristics of his followers, he has created unprecedented mental health consequences across our nation and beyond. With eight new essays (about one hundred pages of new material), this edition will cover the dangerous ramifications of Trump's unnatural state. It’s not all in our heads. It’s in his. |
| 2022 polls real clear politics: Change and Continuity in the 2020 and 2022 Elections John H. Aldrich, Jamie L. Carson, Brad T. Gomez, Jennifer Lee Merolla, 2023 Change and Continuity in the 2020 and 2022 Elections analyzes the most recent presidential and congressional elections, voter turnout, and the social forces, party loyalties, and issues that affect voting behavior. This accessible, data-driven text helps readers understand the elections and what the results mean for the future of American politics. |
